February 2006

12 questions can predict mortality

Researchers at the San Francisco VA Medical Center have created an index that is 81 percent accurate in predicting the likelihood of death within four years for people 50 and older.

Information obtained in a 12-question form is then placed against the index which weighs different mortality risk factors according to a simple point system. A patient who scores zero points on the index has a predicted four-year mortality of less than one percent. A patient with a score of more than 14 points has a 65 percent chance of dying within four years.

For patients and caregivers, predicting near-term likelihood of death is useful when making decisions about medical tests and clinical care. Certain screening interventions, such as a pap smear or a colonoscopy, may not be worth ordering for a particular patient since these screenings generally don’t help until five to eight years after they are given. With this type of index, doctors can get a sense of who will survive long enough to benefit.

The study appears in the February 15, 2006 issue of The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

Source: EurekAlert! Express, www.eurekalert.org

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